It seems that an air war between Russia and Turkey will take soon place in the Libyan West . Eight russian planes departed from the “Hmeimim” base in Syria , in an attempt to save General Haftar’ s forces (LNA) , restore the “patriot” base and prevent its transformation into a Turkish base !
Has Libya already reached the stage of “Syrianization” ? Is Libya the second country where Russia will be actively implicated? Who will prevail in this new Russian-Turkish war ?
The field victories of the GNA forces (Governement National Accord) , were achieved by a direct support of Turkey and by more than 10 000 fundamentalist fighters of the Libyan West Coast. These fighters were not especially against General Haftar’s forces, but against his supporters, and especially Russia. This fact, may push Russia to put more of its weight and military equipment in this war.
The GNA forces emerged from the UN-backed Skhirat conference on the Air Force base, and took the upper hand after the success of the Turkish aircraft Bayrakdar to destroy the Russian “Pantsir” missile systems .
This military development, shocked both the political and military leaders of Russia because it was interpreted as an insult to the Russian military industry, it damaged her image by showing a weaknesses and it excluded it from international competition.
Major General Ahmed Al-Mesmari, spokesman of the Libyan National Army of General Haftar, stated that the technical teams were able to maintain and repair the 4 Libyan combat aircraft (made in Soviet) and that they were brought into service again. According to the opinion of many experts, they were “misleading” and the aim is the coverage and distraction from the arrival of the 8 Russian aircraft at Tobruk Air Force Base in eastern Libya, 6 of them MiG-29 and 2 of them, Sukhoi 24.
Russia wants to save General Haftar and will support him by the Russian Air Forces. The Russian aircrafts which departed from Hmeimim base in northwestern Syria, have as prominent task to participate in the imminent and indirect war between Russia and Turkey in the Libyan airspace. More precisely, they will attempt to destroy the Turkish air defense systems at the “Al-Watiyah” base , as a preparation for the upcoming counter-attack for the restoring of LNA (Haftar’s forces), and the prevention of the establishment of a Turkish base there.
The Libyan crisis is moving to a new phase, called “Syrianization of Libya” , which will turn the country into a proxy war between Russia and Turkey, similar to what happened, and arill6 continues to happen in the countryside of the Syrian Idlib.
The alliance supporting General Haftar includes Egypt, Emirates, France and Saudi Arabia. It is very difficult for the Russian side to accept a defeat in Tripoli and in Western Libya, because this, would absolutely mean the losing of the war.
All the rumors about leaks regarding the abandonment of this alliance by some countries and especially Egypt, Emirates and France, are misinformation.
Trusthworthy, a “bone breaking” battle is upcoming and imminent on the Libyan ground and airspace between Russia and Turkey, with the air force to play the most important role .
According to military experts, the withdrawal of Haftar’s forces from some locations south of Tripoli , is just a “tactic”, it is an attempt to reduce losses and to reposition in preparation for the upcoming battle.
The question is, who will prevail in this air war? and will its results be decisive in the Libyan crisis?
It is difficult to give definitive answers, but we surely, Erdogan , puts all his military “eggs in the basket” of the Governement of National Accord . An eventual loss of GNA would mean the collapse of the Ottoman Islamic project and of the Turkish economic plans . The shock of the loss of oil and gas stocks in eastern Mediterranean will be unbearable. ..
As for Libyan National Army (LNA) who supports Haftar, an eventual defeat, would mean a great and strategic victory of the political Islam ( “jihad”) and of the Turkish-Qatari axis of Muslim Brotherhood. It will be considered as the establishment of an alternative option of the Islamic State that will compensate for the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood’s government in Egypt